A drought in the Western Cape province of South Africa began in 2015 and is resulting in a severe water shortage in the region, most notably affecting the city of Cape Town. With dam levels predicted to decline to critically low levels, the city announced plans for "Day Zero", when if a particular lower limit of water storage was reached, the municipal water supply would largely be shut off, potentially making Cape Town the first major city to run out of water.
Through water saving measures and water supply augmentation, by March 2018 the City had reduced its daily water consumption by more than half to around 500 million litres (110,000,000 imp gal; 130,000,000 US gal) per day, resulting in the initial forecast of Day Zero in April 2018 being re-forecast to 2019. The situation however remains severe, particularly if the run of record dry winters continues through 2018.
Video Cape Town water crisis
Background
The Cape Town region experiences a Mediterranean climate with warm, dry summers and winter rainfall. Water is supplied largely from the six major dams of the Western Cape Water Supply System in mountainous areas close to the city. The dams are recharged by rain falling in their catchment areas, largely during the cooler winter months of May to August, and dam levels decline during the dry summer months of December to February during which urban and agricultural water use increases.
Cape Town's population has grown from 2.4 million residents in 1995 to an estimated 4.3 million by 2018, representing a 79 percent population increase in 23 years whereas dam water storage only increased by 15 percent in the same period. In 2016/2017, 64.5% of the city's water supply went to formal residential users, while 3.6 percent went to informal settlements.
The possibility of the city exceeding its water supply was highlighted as early as 1990.
From 1950 to 1999, the city's consumption of treated water grew at 4% per year in line with the city's population growth. Water consumption peaked in 1999 at 335 million cubic metres (335 gigalitres) per year. In 2000 a plan called Africa Water Vision 2025 was developed aiming for "equitable and sustainable use of water for socioeconomic development".
Periods of low winter rainfall in 2000/2001 and 2003/2004 resulted in water restrictions being imposed. In 2007, the city implemented a 10-year water demand management strategy, which has successfully kept the annual consumption at or below the 1999 level despite ongoing population growth.
In 2009, the storage capacity of the dams supplying Cape Town was increased by 17 percent from 768 to 898 million cubic metres through the completion of the Berg River Dam. Despite the increased storage capacity, the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry predicted that the growing demand from the city would exceed supply by 2013 without water conservation and demand management measures by the city, and that even with those measures, further water sources would be required by 2019.
Maps Cape Town water crisis
Causes
The cause of water loss in Cape Town has been debated. While drought is a factor in the city's water scarcity, the degree of drought has been questioned. It is believed water scarcity, caused by the drought, is being exacerbated by population growth, potentially unreported agriculture use, invasive species, and poor planning of water management. Cape Town particularly has grown by 50 percent in the last decade.
While rainfall tends to undulate at stations monitoring rainfall where water is stored for Cape Town, there has been a clear, significant drop in 2016.
A study conducted by the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town ran statistical analyses to determine that rainfall between the years 2015 and 2017 was very rare and severe.
Some scientists believe this once in a millennium drought is being exacerbated by climate change with a one degree celsius increase in temperature over the past century. Models predict Cape Town will increase another 0.25 degrees celsius in the next ten years, which would increase drought likelihood by up to seven times. Previous climate modeling suggested a likely decrease in rainfall due to climate change, and this is likely some of the first evidence supporting the model. There is additional concern that several other cities will follow suit behind Cape Town in water scarcity.
A major problem with Cape Town's water dependence is that their water systems were built on the stable climate of previous years. Climate change has changed precipitation patterns in the area, leading to less stable sources of water and a quicker rate of water loss than previously expected. Another large cause of water scarcity is agricultural use. In 2016, Cape Town exported 113 million gallons of wine to Europe and the US. For each gallon of wine, between 666 and 1,357 gallons of water is used. One third of the water exported through the wine industry could be used for the 7 million people without access to water in South Africa. In addition, Cape Town exported roughly 231,000 tons of citrus fruits in 2017, resulting in an additional exportation of roughly 30 billion gallons of the area's water.
Timeline
2015-2016
After good rains in 2013 and 2014, the city of Cape Town began experiencing a drought in 2015, the first of three consecutive years of dry winters brought on by the El Niño weather pattern and climate change. Water levels in the city's dams declined from 71.9 percent in 2014 to 50.1 percent in 2015. Water restrictions, in place at "Level 1" since 2005, were increased to Level 2 on 1 January 2016 and to Level 3 on 1 November 2016.
Significant droughts in other parts of South Africa ended in August 2016 through heavy rain and flooding in the interior of the country, but the drought in the Western Cape remained.
2017
Water restrictions were increased to Level 3B on 1 February 2017.
By the end of the dry season in May 2017, the drought was declared the city's worst in a century, with dams having less than 10 percent of their usable capacity. Level 4 water restrictions were imposed, limiting the consumption of water to 100 litres per person per day.
In June 2017 a significant storm hit the area, dropping up to 50 mm of rain, but not enough to break the drought. Overall rainfall in 2017 was the lowest since 1933.
With the dry summer season approaching, the city increased its existing water restrictions to Level 4B on 1 July 2017, and to Level 5 on 3 September 2017, banning most outdoor and non-essential use of water, encouraging the use of greywater for toilet flushing, and aiming to limit the per capita water consumption to 87 litres per day, for a total of 500 million litres per day.
By early October 2017, following a low rainfall winter, Cape Town had an estimated five months before water levels would be depleted. In the same month, the City of Cape Town issued an emergency water plan to be rolled-out in multiple phases depending on the severity of the water shortage. Phase 1 was "water rationing through extreme pressure reduction" which involved temporary water cuts and rationing. Phase 1 was implemented immediately with unannounced water cuts to a number of outlying neighbourhoods. In Phase 2 water will be shut off to most of the system except to places of key water access. Phase 3 is the point at which the city can no longer draw water from surface dams in the Western Cape Water Supply System and there is a limited period of time before the water supply system fails.
In mid-October 2017 the City was criticised by water desalination companies for the slow pace of contract negotiations, high level of bureaucracy, lack of urgency, and the inadequate scale of the proposed water supply projects. On 26 October 2017 it was announced that the Cape Town city manager would be given special powers to take drought-related actions that would not have to follow the city's normal decision making and approval process. This announcement came after a review of the city's decision making processes that found "certain aspects of the Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act, the Municipal Finance Management Act and Supply Chain Management regulations, as well as the council's own Supply Chain Management Policy, failed to adequately provide for the City of Cape Town to 'deal effectively and timeously' with the disaster."
2018
Level 6 restrictions were imposed on 1 January 2018, and Level 6B on 1 February 2018, limiting consumption to 50 litres per person per day.
On 24 January 2018, the Western Cape provincial cabinet stated that it was the responsibility of the national government to fund the expansion of the water system as the "provision of bulk water supply is a national government mandate." The provincial cabinet also announced that it was drawing up plans with the South African Police Service for a strategy to deploy officers at water distribution points across the city after day zero.
In mid-January 2018, Cape Town Mayor Patricia de Lille announced that the city would be forced to shut off most of the municipal water supply if conditions do not change. "Day Zero" would be declared when the water level of the city's major dams reached 13.5%, and Level 7 would be declared, with municipal water supplies largely switched off, and residents relying on 149 water collection points around the city to collect a daily ration of 25 litres of water per person. This would further affect Cape Town's economy, because of employees having "to take time off from work to wait in line for water". Water supply would be maintained in the city's CBD, in informal settlements (where water is already collected from central locations) and essential services such as hospitals. At the time of the announcement, Day Zero was projected to take place on 22 April 2018, shortly afterwards revised forward to 12 April. The Day Zero date is projected based on the fortnightly change in dam storage levels, assuming that this rate will continue unchanged, with no further rainfall or change in water demand.
In February 2018, the Groenland Water Users' Association (a representative body for farmers in the Elgin and Grabouw agricultural areas around Cape Town) began releasing an additional 10 billion litres of water into the Steenbras Dam.
Residential water usage declined significantly under the 6B restrictions to a low of 511 million litres on March 12, the closest yet to the recommended level of 450 million litres per day. Agricultural use also declined significantly. As these reductions took effect and as water transferred from the Groenland Water Users' Association reached the city's water supply, Day Zero was moved back in stages from April to August, and then postponed indefinitely.
Severity of the drought
Research on long-term weather data done by the University of Cape Town found that the period from 2015-2017 has been the driest 3-year period since 1933, and 2017 was the driest year since 1933, and possibly earlier, since comparable data before 1933 was not available. It also found that a drought of this severity will statistically occur on average once every 311 years. Modelling by Aurecon found that the drought was approximately a 1 in 400 year event.
"Once lush city parks and golf courses have withered, and public restrooms now urge visitors to flush only when absolutely necessary". Cafes began using plastic and paper cups and plates to reduce dishwashing loads. Analysts "estimate that the water crisis will cost some 300,000 jobs in agriculture and tens of thousands more in the service, hospitality and food sectors".
Impact
In response to the water shortage, the agricultural sector reduced water consumption by 50 percent, contributing to the loss of 37,000 jobs in the sector nationally, and leading to an estimated 50,000 being pushed below the poverty line due to job losses and inflation due to increases in the price of food. By February 2018 the agricultural sector had incurred R14 billion (US$1.17 billion) in losses due to the water shortage.
In office buildings and many public places throughout Cape Town, water was removed from toilets to prevent flushing and aid in water conservation. Rainwater was directed to be added to the tank if the toilet needed flushing. However, residents have been directed not to flush the toilet if only urinating but use a disinfectant/scented spray afterwards. If defecating residents have been directed to use rainwater or greywater to flush. Hand sanitizer has also been provided in offices and public buildings to use instead of conventional handwashing to conserve water.
The city is urging residents to stock up on emergency drinking water. But the task is proving to be more difficult than residents thought. Stores are selling out of water the minute it is delivered and shopkeepers are uncertain when more will arrive. Residents can go to a natural spring to collect water but this means waiting in line for hours on end to fill their allotment.
Public health
Residents of Cape Town have been restricted to only 50 litres (11 imp gal; 13 US gal) of water per person per day, and are encouraged to flush toilets less often and only using non-potable water, and to reduce the length and frequency of showers. This has led public health professionals to raise concerns of diseases spread via faecal-oral contamination as a result of less hand-washing.
Inadequate sanitation is a leading cause of diarrhoeal diseases, which kill 2.2 million every year, with most deaths occurring among children younger than 5 years of age. With a population around 3.81 million and a population density of around 1530 per square kilometer, diseases like cholera, listeriosis and others could spread rapidly without proper sanitation, especially in impoverished neighborhoods in Cape Town. Without clean water the public health consequences continue as insects are attracted and reproduce in dirty waters, further spreading disease.
Officials warn that water-borne illnesses such as cholera, hepatitis A and typhoid fever "likely will become more prevalent" as residents begin storing water in contaminated containers.
Public health companies, research centres and health providers also worry about the impact the water crisis will have on health services. Some are thinking ahead to the impact of employees being unable to come into work because they are waiting in lines for water which are becoming longer and longer.
Occupational health risks
Emergency shower and eyewash stations are an essential part of workplace safety for many laboratories and factories. A steady supply of water is necessary in the event of harmful chemical exposure. Many Occupational Health and Safety requirements suggest that all emergency showers be able to pump 75 litres per minute for a minimum of 15 minutes. This would use approximately three weeks of water. If these wash stations are banned or limited, workers who handle highly corrosive chemicals would be vulnerable.
Fire risk increases as environment and infrastructure become increasingly dry. This is especially significant for large industrial sites and warehousing as fire on one site can spread more easily to other buildings in close proximity. Fire suppression system may also fail due to reduced water pressure in high-use areas.
Vulnerable population
In homes and orphanages, children are one of the most vulnerable populations in Cape Town to suffer from health effects of water scarcity. The feeding, washing, and sterilization of items required to care for children is water intensive. Furthermore, "If schools in the Western Cape have their taps turned off on Day Zero, 1.1 million children could be left stranded without water."
Industry
The agriculture industry is one of the largest consumers of water. The wine industry in and surrounding Cape Town is a major tourist draw and is a significant aspect of the economy, employing 300,000 workers. The wineries drew 1.5 million tourists in 2017 and at the same time used a third of the water. Depending on the region, a vineyard needs between 10 and 24 inches of rain to survive. South Africa's wineries have received on average half as much precipitation in the past year. The stress is being felt by industry where less water is causing smaller berries and therefore smaller yield. The industry also has a disproportionate profit with only about 1% return on investment despite producing some of the most popular wines in the world. The grape yield for 2018 could fall an estimated 20% from the 1.4 million tons produced in 2017, resulting in a 9% decrease in the volume of wine sold.
The water crisis impacts organisations and industries that are not reliant on large volumes of water for their core operations as well such as corporate offices. The World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report 2015 ranked the risk of a water crisis as the top risk in terms of impact. The cost of doing business in a drought affected area increases significantly. As workers move away or are evacuated from drought-affected areas the local economies suffer.
Hydrological poverty
Hydrologic poverty tends to trap their people as they cannot afford to purchase food or water necessary for their society to become more affluent. An analyst estimates that with the current water crisis 300,000 jobs could be lost in agriculture and tens of thousands more in the service, hospitality and food sectors. In Cape Town it is illegal to sell water from wells or rivers but people can still profit from the transport and labor. One resident who had been stockpiling water was charging $350 for a barrel of water. This is further alienating the more impoverished neighborhoods and citizens of getting necessary clean water. Those who are using over the allocated daily water are being fined between R 500-3000 (US$41-248). Yet this impact is further cementing the gap because the fine is likely insignificant for the wealthy and can be crippling for less affluent residents. Increases in hydrological poverty, by the reduction of available water, could increase deaths in Cape Town by 25 to 33 percent.
Political responsibility
Responsibility for the water supply is shared by local, provincial and national government. Cape Town and the Western Cape are governed by the Democratic Alliance (DA), and Western Cape is the only province not run by the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power nationally since 1994. The Water Act of 1998 puts the national government as the "public trustee" of the nation's water resources which must ensure that water is "protected, used, developed, conserved, managed and controlled in a sustainable and equitable manner, for the benefit of all persons". It says "the National Government, acting through the Minister, has the power to regulate the use, flow and control of all water in the Republic." This has resulted in tension between the DA-led local and provincial government on the one hand, and the ANC-led national government on the other, with the parties at times blaming each other for the water crisis.
The party leader of the Democratic Alliance, Mmusi Maimane, has taken a public role in announcements regarding the crisis, although he holds no role in government structures. This has led to criticism of complicating the situation by conflating party and state.
Positives
This water crisis has increased research and investment in alternative water systems, which may ultimately help prevent other cities from falling into the same degree of water scarcity. As climate change continues and the population grows, moving into urban areas, other cities will also face severe drought and will need to assess alternative methods for obtaining water.
The potential for a culture change in water usage is also a positive result of this crisis.
Solutions
The city of Cape Town is currently working on constructing four new desalination plants as well as building new water wells and an effluent recycler. By January 2018, these projects were half way through completion. In addition, the city has been working on educating the public on reducing water consumption. This has led to successful drop in water consumption by 50 percent from 2015 to early 2018.
References
External links
- Day Zero and Water-related FAQs
- City of Cape Town Dam Levels Dashboard
- City of Cape Town Day Zero Dashboard
- City of Cape Town This Week's Dam Levels
Source of article : Wikipedia
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